Climate Dynamics I - ATOC-530

Introduction:

Earth radiation balance (1). General circulation of the atmosphere (1) and oceans (1). Feedbacks between the various spheres of the climate system (1). Use hydrological and carbon cycles as examples of potential feedbacks (2). Faint Young Sun paradox as an example of forced climate change and introduction of chemical weathering and the earth thermostat (1). Geological era, period and epoch (1) - 8 lectures.

Climate change on various time scales...

ranging from 10 Myr [forced by plate tectonics [e.g. snow ball earth, Rocky Mountain and Tibetan Plateau formation, opening of the Drake Passage, Closing of the Isthmus of Panama and Indonesian throughflow (5)], to 10 Kyr [forced by orbital changes [ e.g. Milankovich cycle, climate of the last 3 million years gradually changing from 20 to 40 to 100 Kyr, effect of changing climate on human evolution, modeling of the 100 Kyr cycle (4)], and to 1 Kyr and shorter time scale [forced by variation in solar insolation, or arising from natural variability [e.g. Dansgaard Oschgaard Oscillations, Heinrich Event, modeling of the DO event and Henrich event, Bond cycles (4)] - 13+ lectures.

Climate change: recent history.

Forced or natural climate variability? Little ice age, climatic optimum, medieval warm period, droughts, flash flood - 6+ lectures.

Climate of the 20 and 21st century:

Apparent discrepancy between satellite derived surface temperature and observational record (1), evidence of warming - linear relationship between CO2 and global mean temperature? (1) Arctic climate changes and polar amplification (1), future climate [e.g. Ice sheet melting - evidence from Greenland ice sheet (runoff, seismicity), stability of ice sheet, sea level rise, change in vegetation, fauna, potential negative feedback - fresh water budget, ice-cloud-albedo feedback) ]; modeling of the climate [e.g. EBM, radiative convective models] (4) - 12+ lectures. .

Evaluation:

Assignments: Not corrected (+10pts on Midterm/Final for proper completion).
Week Review: 10%
Oral presentation: 25%
Midterm: 25%
Final: 40%

References:

Ruddiman, W.F., 2001: "Earth's Climate: Past and Present", WH Freeman and Co. Scientific articles from, GRL, Paleoceanography, Journal of Climate, Nature, Science, etc (see website for details).

www.realclimate.org

Disclaimer:

McGill values academic integrity. Therefore all students must understand the meaning and consequences of cheating, plagiarism and other academic offenses under the code of Conduct and Disciplinary Procedures (www.mcgill.ca/integrity).

Discussion Questions-Part 1

Discussion Questions - Part 2

Assignment #1: Due Wednesday September 20, 2006.

Assignment #2: Due Monday October 2, 2006.

Assignment #3: Due Wednesday October 18, 2006.

Assignment #4: Due Friday November 3, 2006.

Assignment #5: Due Wedneday November 22, 2006.

Assignment #6 - EOS-Broecker-2006 - EOS-Ruddiman-2006: Due Monday December 4, 2006.

Section 2: Plate Tectonic and Climate summary

Section 3: Orbital Change and Climate Change

Summary of Week 1-2: by Jan Sedlacek.

Summary of Carbon and hydrological cycle: Jasmine Remillard

Summary of Climate weathering and Geological time scales: Sarah Dick.

Summary of Effect of Climate of human evolution, initiation and modeling of the 100Kyr cycle: Agnes Barszcz

Summary of EBM and Snowball Earth: Pier-Yves Trepanier

Summary of Heinrich Event and modeling of Heinrich Events: Jennifer Hayek

Summary of Gulf Stream and Europeen Climate, and rapid climate change (Clement et al): Rabah Aider

Summary of Abrupt sea ice change, Greenland Mass Balance: Bertrand Rioux

Summary of the Little Ice Age and the Mediaval Warm Period: Christopher Simmons

Summary of Noah's flood, effect of climate change on Human Evolution: John Kosowski

Week #1 - Sep 4-8, 2006

First lecture: Slide show on the ``Surface HEat Budget of the Arctic Experiment (SHEBA)'' and from a recent cruise to the Eastern Arctic to introduce some basic principle of climate dynamics based on the research I do.

Second lecture: Equilibrium temperature of the earth. Variation in solar irradiance, albedo, and greenhouse gas composition of the atmosphere.

Week #2 - Sep 11-15, 2006

First lecture: Global atmospheric circulation.

Second lecture: Geostrophy, mid-latitude cyclones, fronts etc.

Third lecture: Global ocean circulation.

Week #3 - Sep 18-22, 2006

First lecture: Ekman transport, geostrophy, etc.

Second lecture: Global hydrological cycle.

Third lecture: Polar Hydrology (Power Point)

Week #4 - Sep 25-29, 2006

First lecture: Global carbon cycle.

Second lecture: Chemical weathering.

Third lecture: Geological Time Scale (Word Document). Earth History in 5min!(Powerpoint)

Week #5 - Oct 2-6, 2006

First lecture: Energy Balance Model (EBM): derive equations.

Second lecture: EBM: discretize and solve equtions

Third lecture: Discussion of snowball earth (Powerpoint)

• Hoffman, P.F., A.J. Kaufman. G.P. Halverson and D.P. Schrag, "A Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth", Science, 281, 1342-1346, 1998.
• McKay, C.P., "Thickness of tropical ice and photosynthesis on a snow ball earth, GRL, 37, 2153-2156, 2000.
• Hyde, W.T., T.J. Crowley, S.K. Baum, W.R. Pelletier, "Neoproterozoic snowball earth simulation with a coupled climate ice sheet model", Nature, 205, 425-429, 2000.
• Crowley, Crowley T.J., W.T. Hyde and W.R. Peltier, "CO2 levels required for deglaciation of a Snowball Earth, GRL, 28, 283-286, 1981. Additional Reading - just for your own pleasure.
• North, "Analytical solution to a simple climate model with diffusive heat transport, Journal of Atmosphere Science, 1975. Additional Reading - just for your own pleasure.
• Sellers, W.D., "A global climatic model based on the energy balance of the earth-atmosphere system", Journal of Applied Meteorology, 8, 392-400, 1969. Additional Reading - just for your own pleasure.

Week #6 - Oct 9-13, 2006

First lecture: Run EBM in class, hysteris, multiple equilibria - EBM model in matlab

Second lecture: Plate tectonic, continental drift

Third lecture: Plateau uplift and climate change

Required reading:

• Raymo, Ruddiman WF, "Tectonic forcing of late Cenozoic climate, Nature, 359 (6391), 117-122, 1992.
• Ruddiman, WF, Kutzbach JE, "Plateau uplift and climatic-change, Scientific American, 264 (3), 1991.

Week #7 - Oct 16-20, 2006

First lecture: Closing of Drake Passage and Antarctic climate.

Second lecture: Indonesian Throughflow, closing of Isthmus of Panama, the THC and African climate

Third lecture: Indonesian Through flow (continued) - Equatorial Pacific Dynamics

Required reading:

• Scher, H. D., E. E. Martin, "Timing and climate consequences of the opening of Drake Passage", Science, 312, 428-430, 2006.
• Eagles, G., R. Livermore, P. Morris, "Small ocean basin in the Scotia Sea: the Drake Passage Gateway", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 242, 343-353, 2006.
• Cane, M. A., P. Molnar, "Closing of the Indonesian seaway as a precursor to east African aridircation around 3-4 million years ago", Nature, 411 (6834), 157-162, 2001.
• Haug, GH, Tiedemann R, "Effect of the formation of the Isthmus of Panama on Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation, Nature, 393 (6686), 673-676, 1998.

Week #8 - Oct 23-27, 2006

First lecture: Milankovich cycle, theory and evidence

Second lecture: Effect of climate on human evolution - Presenter: Jennifer Hayek

Third lecture: Milankovich theory - continued.

Required reading:

• Behrensmeyer, A.K., "Climate Change and Human Evolution", Science, 311, 477-478, 2006.
• Trauth, M.H., M.A. Maslin, A. Deino, M.R. Strecker, "Late Cenozoic Moisture History of East Africa", Science, 209, 2051-2053, 2005.
• Potts, R., "Environmental Hypotheses of Pliocene Human Evolution", Hominin Environments in the East African Pliocene: an Assessment of the Faunal Evidence Edited by R. Bobe, Z. Alemseged, and A.K. Behrensmeyer Kluwer, NY, 2006.

Week #9 - Oct 30-Nov3, 2006

First lecture: Modeling of the 100kry cycle - Presenter: Agnes Barszcz

Second lecture: Midterm examination.

Third lecture: Dansgaard Oeschger Oscillations and Heinrich Events

Required reading:

• Rutherford, S, D'Hondt S, "Early onset and tropical forcing of 100,000-year Pleistocene glacial cycles", Nature 408 (6808), 72-75, 2000.
• Gildor, H. Tziperman, E., "A sea ice climate switch mechanism for the 100 Kyr glacial cycles", Journal of Geophysical Research, 106 (C5), 9117-9133, 2001.
• Broecker, W. S. and Hemming, S. "Climate swing come into focus", Science 294:2308-2309, 2001.
• Bond, G. et al., "Evidence for massive discharges of icebergs into the North Atlantic Ocean during the last glacial period". Nature, 360, pp245-249, 1992.

Week #10 - Nov 6-10, 2006

First Lecture: Mechanisms responsible for Heinrich Event

Second Lecture: More rapid climate change Presenter: Jasmine Remillard

Third Lecture: Modelling of Dansgaard Oeschger Oscillation and Heinrich Event

Required reading:

• Hunt, A. G. and Malin, A. P., "Possible triggering of Heinrich events by ice-load-induced earthquake, Nature, 393, pp 155-158, 1998.
• MacAyeal, D.R. Binge/purge oscillations of the Laurentide ice sheet as a cause of the north Atlantic's Heinrich events, Paleoceanography 8(6):775-784, 1993
• Ganopolski, A, Rahmstorf S, "Rapid changes of glacial climate simulated in a coupled climate model", Nature", 409 (6817), 153-158, 2001.
• Clement, A. C., M. A. Cane, R. Seager, "An orbitally driven tropical source for abrupt climate change", Journal of Climate, 14 (11), 2369-2375, 2001.

Week #11 - Nov 13-17, 2006

First lecture: Effect of human on climate - Presenter: Christopher Simmons .

Second lecture: Radiative Convective Models: derive equations

Third lecture: Noah's flood PowerPoint Presentation and Animation- Presenter: John Kosowski .

Required reading:

• Ruddiman, WF, "How did humans first alter global climate? Scientific American, 292 (3), 46-53, 2005.
• Ryan, W.B., C.O. Major, G. Lericolais, S. Goldstein, "Catastrophic flooding of the Black Sea", Annual Review Earth and Planetary Science, 31, 525-554, 2003.

Week #12 - Nov 20-24, 2006

First lecture: Gulf Stream, THC and European climate - Presenter: Rabah Aider.

Second lecture: Radiative-Convective models - play with the model: CO2.

Third Lecture: Greenland ice mass balance - Presenter: Pier-Yves Trepanier

• Seager, R, Battisti, D.S., Yin J, Gordon N, Naik N, Clement A.C., Cane M.A., "Is the Gulf Stream responsible for Europe's mild winters?", Quaterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 128 (586), 2563-2586, 2002.
• Ekstrom, G, Nettles M, Tsai VC, "Seasonality and increasing frequency of Greenland glacial earthquakes, Science, 311 (5768), 1756-1758, 2006.
• Dowdeswell, J.A. "The Greenland ice sheet and the Global Sea level Rise, Science, 311, 963-964, 2006.

Week #13 - Nov 27-Dec 1, 2006

First Lecture:Future abrupt climate change in Arctic sea ice - Presenter: Bertrand Rioux

Second lecture: Play with Radiative-Convective model, CO2.

Third lecture: Pleistocene paradox - Presenter: Sarah Dyck.

• Holland, M., Bitz, C., Tremblay, B., "Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice.", Geophysical Research Letters, in review, 2006.
• Fedorov, AV, Dekens PS, McCarthy M, et al. "The Pliocene paradox (mechanisms for a permanent El Nino) SCIENCE 312 (5779), 1485-1489, 2006.

Week #14 - Dec 4 - Dec 8, 2006

First Lecture: Global Dimming - Presenter: Lily Ioannidou.

• Wild, M. et al, "From dimming to brightening: Decadal changes in solar radiation at Earth's surface", Science, 2005.
• Schiermeier, S. "Clear skies raise global warming estimates", Nature, 2005.

Reference:

• Lambeck, K., Esat, T.M., Potter, E.K. "Links between climate and sea levels for the past three million years", Nature 419, 2002.
• Tremblay, B. and L.A. Mysak and A.S. Dyke, Evidence from Driftwood Records for Century-to-millennial Scale Variations of the High Latitude Atmospheric Circulation During the Holocene, Geophysical Research Letters, 24, 2027-2030, 1997.

SSMI data - Max Mignote